Between now and November 1, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will present the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
Historically, the Plan establishes a target for the number of permanent residents admitted to Canada in the coming year, with nominal targets for the following two years, for a total of three years.The Plan affects more than only Canada's immigration goals. It dictates how the country's population will grow, which has implications for social institutions, taxation, housing costs, healthcare, and labour market growth.
However, this year will be different because Immigration Minister Marc Miller said last March that temporary residents (those on employment and study permits, as well as visitor visas) would be included in the Plan for the first time.
In 2023, Canada had about 2,500,000 temporary residents, accounting for 6.2% of the total population. Miller says the forthcoming Plan would aim to reduce the number of temporary immigrants admitted in the future years, bringing the figure down to 5% of Canada's population within the next three years.
The exact number of temporary residents Canada will welcome in coming years has not yet been determined but looking back at announcements throughout the year, it may be possible to see some of IRCC’s plans for the years ahead and how it may impact the upcoming Plan.
Study Permits
In January of this year, IRCC announced a limit on the amount of study permits it would process for international students. The agency stated that it projected to process 606,000 study permit applications, with an approval rate of 360,000. This is a 35% drop in the number of permits processed in 2023.
The statement came as a surprise, given that the minister had previously declared that he opposed setting caps or targets, particularly for Canada's international student program.
According to the government, international students made up 42% of Canada's temporary residents in 2023.
Furthermore, in September, the minister declared that the department will reduce the number of permits processed in 2025 to 437,000, and that master's and PhD students,
Open Work Permits
In addition to the study permit cap, IRCC has stated that it intends to reduce the number of Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs) and Spousal Open Work Permits (SOWPs) issued during the following three years.
The department has implemented many new eligibility restrictions for PGWP candidates. Specifically, individuals must have a Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) score of at least 7 if they are university graduates or CLB 5 if they are graduating from college.
In his remarks last month, the minister stated that he expected the changes in PGWP eligibility to result in 175,000 fewer permits being given over the next three years.
Changes to the SOWP are likely to result in a further reduction of about 50,000 temporary residents over the same time. Spouses of international master's students may now be eligible for a SOWP if their spouse's master's program is 16 months or longer, or if they are enrolled in a program identified by IRCC as critical or in-demand.
Spouses of "highly skilled, specialised workers" will still be eligible for SOWPs. However, the minister claims that the new criterion will result in a further reduction of 100,000 open work permits issued during the next three years.
Overall, the IRCC plans to award 325,000 fewer open work permits over the next three years.
Closed Work Permits
There have also been announcements about how firms can utilise the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).
Randy Boissonnault, Minister of Employment, Workforce Development, and Official Languages, has changed the TFWP eligibility requirements for employers.
Notably, firms can no longer hire more than 10% of their whole workforce under the TFWP. Furthermore, the maximum employment period for workers hired under the Low-Wage stream has been cut from two to one year.
Furthermore, despite exceptions, IRCC will not process low-wage Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) from firms in Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) with an unemployment rate greater than 6%. The Minister did not specify how these reforms would lower the number of temporary foreign workers in Canada.
Minister Boissonnault has spoken extensively about Canadian employers' "addiction" to the TFWP, but emphasises that the program was always intended to be used as a last resort.
Permanent residents
The Immigration Levels Plan 2024-2026 established an aim of bringing 500,000 permanent residents to Canada in 2025 and sustaining that target in 2026. Economic immigration, family class sponsorship, refugee and protected individuals, and humanitarian lines of business can all lead to permanent residence status.
Minister Miller recently stated that all options are on the table for the amount of permanent residents Canada will admit in the coming years, adding that any revisions would be "significant."
He has stated that he is exploring a change in "the type of immigration that Canada supports."
Specifically, 60% of immigration to Canada is for economic immigrants, or skilled professionals who will integrate into the national labour and contribute to the economy. Last summer, the minister told CTV News that this level is "unprecedented" when compared to many other countries.
Where is this coming from?
Canadians have expressed concerns about the influx of newcomers and the strain they place on the already overburdened healthcare system, as well as the limited supply of affordable homes, as the population continues to hit new milestones.
The 2023 Environics Institute assessment on Canadian support for immigration highlighted these two important topics that are anticipated to have an impact on the upcoming federal election.
According to this survey, Canadians' support for immigration has significantly decreased as compared to 2022 results. The anticipated huge volume of immigrants in the upcoming years was unknown to Canadians. It was discovered that very few had a problem with immigrants.
In order to stop criminals from exploiting unsuspecting newcomers who are frequently the targets of scams or do not receive enough assistance to succeed after arriving in Canada, Minister Miller has also stated that the number of temporary residents, particularly international students, needs to be "reined in."
Despite these reservations, Miller and Boissonnault constantly highlight the benefits of immigration for culture, the fact that immigration accounts for nearly all of Canada's labour force growth, and the need for caution on the part of the government to avoid "overcorrecting."
